Updated at 2025-06-01 18:16:41.177781

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250601_171916
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250601_171916
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-01.5
Success! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-01.5\btc_report_2025-06-01.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
9 1 October 16.71% 14.6% 72.94% -31.96% 61.22% 425 False 10.93% 12.75% 75% 124 49.98% 48.73% 100% 93 -4.05% -4.46% 33.33% 93 12.82% 28.54% 80.87% 115
1 2 February 11.48% 11.63% 71.21% -31.49% 65.17% 396 False 10.85% 4.71% 50% 116 26.93% 30.1% 75% 112 -5.89% 1.63% 66.67% 84 9.11% 11.06% 100% 84
10 3 November 40.82% 11.54% 65.06% -37.01% 450.16% 415 False 24.9% 25.19% 100% 120 165.87% 54.61% 66.67% 90 -13.89% -16.22% 33.33% 90 2.39% 8.8% 52.17% 115
6 4 July 10.19% 9.92% 69.23% -9.06% 40.61% 403 False 15.4% 13.69% 75% 124 14.7% 15.83% 100% 93 9.59% 16.84% 66.67% 93 -0.68% -4.06% 33.33% 93
0 5 January 5.72% 9.7% 57.54% -32.43% 54.53% 431 False 8.05% 8.22% 75% 124 19.57% 12% 75% 124 -11.31% -16.74% 33.33% 93 1.04% -7.6% 34.44% 90
4 6 May 9.92% 7.06% 57.14% -35.39% 70.36% 434 False 11.01% 10.39% 100% 124 9.38% 1.28% 50% 124 1.75% -15.61% 33.33% 93 17.37% -3.2% 33.33% 93
3 7 April 11.25% 5.4% 64.29% -17.32% 46.47% 420 False 7.41% 5.19% 75% 120 21.22% 20.07% 75% 120 4.94% -1.31% 33.33% 90 9.42% 2.67% 66.67% 90
5 8 June 1.29% 2.12% 53.85% -37.3% 27.85% 390 True 10.71% 11.08% 50% 120 -9.55% -6.02% 33.33% 90 -16.65% -14.77% 33.33% 90 17.51% 14.67% 100% 90
2 9 March 12.27% -1.96% 42.86% -32.83% 186.76% 434 False -3.75% -3.43% 25% 124 51.09% 13.88% 50% 124 -15.03% -17.57% 33.33% 93 9.15% 8.05% 66.67% 93
8 10 September -4.03% -3.11% 36.32% -39.75% 19.8% 413 False 6.54% 6.96% 75% 120 -5.63% -6.97% 0% 90 -9.14% -5.96% 0% 90 -9.92% 2.58% 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.64% -3.2% 49.65% -34.61% 47.15% 431 False 20.26% 18.54% 75% 124 -4.59% -18.96% 33.33% 93 -8.45% -6.98% 0% 93 12.92% 12% 74.38% 121
7 12 August 1.67% -8.31% 37.71% -26.61% 65.78% 411 False -1.24% -2.85% 50% 124 36.78% 30.92% 100% 93 -13.65% -13.86% 0% 93 -13% -11.26% 0% 101 
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.27% 27.46% 64.29% -41.42% 259.63% 14 False 50.53% 35.82% 100% 4 116.89% 115.72% 66.67% 3 -21.93% -19.35% 0% 3 19.18% 29.92% 75% 4
9 2 October-November 79.1% 25.99% 64.29% -39.81% 786.97% 14 False 39.7% 37.14% 100% 4 315.63% 129.95% 100% 3 -18.21% -11.58% 0% 3 14.07% 15.4% 50% 4
8 3 September-October 11.47% 18.8% 71.43% -58.75% 59.14% 14 False 16.89% 18.8% 100% 4 41.76% 35.91% 100% 3 -12.45% -10.16% 33.33% 3 1.26% 14.53% 50% 4
3 4 April-May 23.47% 17.47% 64.29% -36.48% 114.5% 14 False 18.89% 16.99% 75% 4 34.68% 30.36% 75% 4 5.33% 8.17% 66.67% 3 32.77% -4.41% 33.33% 3
1 5 February-March 34.18% 12.27% 64.29% -43.36% 373.65% 14 False 9.36% 0.57% 50% 4 110.7% 44.28% 75% 4 -18.94% -31.73% 33.33% 3 18.37% 19.99% 100% 3
5 6 June-July 11.07% 11.29% 69.23% -26.61% 79.5% 13 True 28.16% 18.71% 75% 4 4.16% 11.29% 66.67% 3 -10.26% -7.29% 33.33% 3 16.54% 18.02% 100% 3
11 7 December-January 12.6% 9.48% 64.29% -42.33% 68.2% 14 False 42.35% 47.52% 100% 4 -19.51% -28.27% 33.33% 3 -7.21% -14.04% 33.33% 3 21.79% 18.09% 75% 4
4 8 May-June 14.13% 5.83% 69.23% -47.06% 104.26% 13 False 23% 19.82% 100% 4 2.47% -35.99% 33.33% 3 -11.73% -30.92% 33.33% 3 39.81% 11.01% 100% 3
0 9 January-February 18.65% 5.8% 64.29% -25.69% 153.25% 14 False 18.45% 14.02% 100% 4 55.71% 39.64% 75% 4 -19.04% -24.85% 0% 3 7.19% 2.64% 66.67% 3
2 10 March-April 27.83% 1.93% 64.29% -18.66% 317.18% 14 False 0.8% 0.7% 75% 4 92.47% 20.5% 100% 4 -13.99% -12.91% 0% 3 19.5% 26.31% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-August 13.69% 0.49% 53.85% -25.15% 92.02% 13 False 15.31% 10.82% 50% 4 56.56% 43.16% 100% 3 -4.92% 0.49% 66.67% 3 -12.73% -12.46% 0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.14% -5.1% 30.77% -32.98% 51.48% 13 False 5.56% -2.16% 25% 4 28.76% 29.13% 100% 3 -21.39% -16.59% 0% 3 -14.18% -17.03% 0% 3 
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.09% 30.53% 78.57% -45.86% 294.52% 14 False 77.59% 65.94% 100% 4 105% 57.73% 66.67% 3 -22.95% -35.83% 33.33% 3 25.69% 20.64% 100% 4
9 2 October-December 73.81% 27.94% 64.29% -44.02% 479.8% 14 False 70.92% 53.16% 100% 4 235.36% 220.84% 100% 3 -25.5% -17.6% 0% 3 30.04% 25.57% 50% 4
8 3 September-November 74.26% 25.94% 64.29% -60.13% 775.53% 14 False 46.1% 46.78% 100% 4 302.19% 110.12% 100% 3 -26.35% -21.29% 0% 3 6.92% 12.09% 50% 4
4 4 May-July 23.52% 20.24% 61.54% -38.04% 111.72% 13 False 41.29% 35.36% 100% 4 17.93% -28.21% 33.33% 3 -8.28% -16.42% 33.33% 3 37.2% 20.24% 66.67% 3
1 5 February-April 55.46% 15% 57.14% -44.1% 589.06% 14 False 11.74% 7.03% 50% 4 173.9% 57.28% 75% 4 -18.41% -8.94% 0% 3 29.68% 26.37% 100% 3
11 6 December-February 29.23% 14.17% 64.29% -50.86% 170.62% 14 False 87.04% 95.07% 75% 4 -23.75% -24.28% 33.33% 3 -0.78% -4.51% 33.33% 3 33.66% 29.88% 100% 4
2 7 March-May 37.2% 12.29% 71.43% -27.37% 281.48% 14 False 11.63% 10.57% 100% 4 95.25% 58.51% 75% 4 -13.37% -26.51% 33.33% 3 44.46% 17.6% 66.67% 3
7 8 August-October 22.15% 11.97% 69.23% -42.08% 125.3% 13 False 15.21% 15.25% 100% 4 93.79% 108.18% 100% 3 -24.16% -18.42% 0% 3 6.07% 8.95% 66.67% 3
3 9 April-June 28.02% 7.61% 61.54% -56.23% 162.95% 13 False 31.56% 38.62% 75% 4 27.83% -6.25% 33.33% 3 -7.69% -7.81% 33.33% 3 59.19% 7.61% 100% 3
0 10 January-March 54.24% 2.72% 50% -50.08% 626.21% 14 False 15.4% 1.61% 50% 4 182.02% 56.73% 75% 4 -29.83% -37.86% 0% 3 19.75% 10.89% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-September 11.88% 1% 53.85% -38.89% 85.15% 13 False 23.85% 9.48% 75% 4 47.23% 41.2% 100% 3 -12.75% -2.68% 33.33% 3 -14.8% -11.5% 0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.48% 0.42% 61.54% -36.88% 106.02% 13 True 28.62% 15.31% 75% 4 44.23% 26.49% 100% 3 -22.3% -23.7% 0% 3 2.65% 0.42% 66.67% 3 
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.19% 66.01% 64.29% -47.08% 330.1% 14 False 167.12% 168.72% 100% 4 146.54% 117.88% 66.67% 3 -25.88% -45.96% 33.33% 3 44.05% 38.96% 50% 4
9 2 October-March 125.23% 53.4% 78.57% -37.92% 687.47% 14 False 309.75% 260.61% 100% 4 108.09% 60.16% 100% 3 -9.53% -37.3% 33.33% 3 54.63% 38.42% 75% 4
7 3 August-January 103.32% 45.64% 61.54% -62.83% 721.32% 13 False 106.41% 89.49% 100% 4 323.16% 255.38% 66.67% 3 -39.78% -55.83% 0% 3 22.49% 29.44% 66.67% 3
11 4 December-May 104.03% 45.3% 71.43% -44.3% 932.36% 14 False 310.01% 149.6% 100% 4 -37.58% -43.92% 0% 3 44.9% 58.56% 66.67% 3 48.6% 45.3% 100% 4
6 5 July-December 121.97% 45.02% 69.23% -49.84% 718.7% 13 False 102.98% 74.8% 100% 4 404.5% 462.97% 100% 3 -36.4% -42.16% 0% 3 23.14% 38.69% 66.67% 3
0 6 January-June 81.65% 44.32% 69.23% -56.9% 576.21% 13 False 43.8% 46.32% 100% 4 250.72% 155.14% 100% 3 -41.1% -53.99% 0% 3 85.8% 84.33% 66.67% 3
10 7 November-April 135.98% 43.93% 71.43% -38.65% 1171.64% 14 False 404.54% 206.19% 100% 4 41.84% 43.64% 66.67% 3 -1.29% -16.42% 33.33% 3 40.98% 47.41% 75% 4
5 8 June-November 111.69% 42.85% 69.23% -47% 776.49% 13 True 82.81% 75.72% 100% 4 387.4% 332.88% 100% 3 -44.3% -45.97% 0% 3 30.5% 38.57% 66.67% 3
4 9 May-October 54.16% 31.17% 76.92% -45.54% 377% 13 False 63.52% 57.77% 100% 4 142.9% 45.52% 100% 3 -34.02% -31.81% 0% 3 41.12% 31.17% 100% 3
1 10 February-July 75.2% 30.4% 76.92% -39.4% 384.14% 13 False 52.64% 59.83% 100% 4 201.9% 196.25% 100% 3 -30.26% -27.52% 0% 3 84.07% 30.4% 100% 3
2 11 March-August 62.14% 12.04% 61.54% -53.59% 297.45% 13 False 41.85% 33.7% 75% 4 194.46% 281.75% 100% 3 -32.92% -31.97% 0% 3 51.93% 12.04% 66.67% 3
3 12 April-September 44.76% -3.17% 46.15% -57.33% 303.8% 13 False 63.26% 57.17% 75% 4 103.52% 32.2% 66.67% 3 -25.36% -14.01% 0% 3 31.44% -3.17% 33.33% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5003 days
R-squared: 0.886315
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1833%
Annual Growth Rate: 95.12%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $104638.09
Total Change: $104627.19 (959882.51%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1510417.08
Projected Change: $1405778.98 (1343.47%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.75%
Max Overvaluation: 1061.77%
Max Undervaluation: -92.21%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.934221
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1938%
   Annual Growth Rate: 102.73%
   Price Change: $84844.09 (428.64%)
   Start Price: $19794.00
   End Price: $104638.09

2. Window Size: 60 days
   R-squared: 0.911011
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.5896%
   Annual Growth Rate: 754.80%
   Price Change: $22136.09 (26.83%)
   Start Price: $82502.00
   End Price: $104638.09

3. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.885112
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1982%
   Annual Growth Rate: 105.99%
   Price Change: $77849.09 (290.60%)
   Start Price: $26789.00
   End Price: $104638.09

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.934221
     Annual Growth: 102.73%
     Price Range: $19794 → $104638 (428.6%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $121,372 ($90,666 - $162,476)
     +60 days: $128,630 ($96,083 - $172,203)
     +90 days: $136,323 ($101,823 - $182,513)

#2. 60 days | R² = 0.911011
     Annual Growth: 754.80%
     Price Range: $82502 → $104638 (26.8%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $134,542 ($125,426 - $144,321)
     +60 days: $160,491 ($148,596 - $173,338)
     +90 days: $191,444 ($175,722 - $208,573)

#3. 750 days | R² = 0.885112
     Annual Growth: 105.99%
     Price Range: $26789 → $104638 (290.6%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $122,987 ($90,741 - $166,694)
     +60 days: $130,513 ($96,283 - $176,913)
     +90 days: $138,500 ($102,163 - $187,761)

Fitting distributions to historical Bitcoin returns...
✅ Distribution fitting completed!
=== DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS ===
Historical returns: 5003 observations
Mean return: 0.3260%
Std deviation: 4.2867%
Skewness: 0.5058
Kurtosis: 18.9076 (excess kurtosis)
Jarque-Bera test p-value: 0.000000
❌ Jarque-Bera test: Returns are NOT normally distributed

FITTED DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS:
Student-t: df=2.08, loc=0.1922%, scale=1.9526%
  → Very fat tails (df < 5)
Skewed Normal: skew=1.023, loc=-2.2490%, scale=4.5293%
  → Strong positive skew (right tail heavier)

Running Enhanced Monte Carlo Simulation...
Simulation period: 90 days
Number of paths: 10,000

  → Running Standard GBM (Normal)...
  → Running Fat Tails (Student-t)...
  → Running Skewed Normal...
  → Running Historical Bootstrap...
  → Running Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)...
✅ Enhanced simulation completed!
====================================================================================================
                         ENHANCED MONTE CARLO RISK COMPARISON
====================================================================================================
                      Method Median Return Mean Return VaR (1%) VaR (5%) Risk/Reward P(Loss) P(+50% gain) P(-50% loss)
       Standard GBM (Normal)        +23.0%      +33.8%   -53.5%   -37.3%       3.8:1   30.4%        31.8%         1.5%
       Fat Tails (Student-t)         +9.2%      +18.5%  -108.1%   -58.6%       2.2:1   42.2%        23.3%         7.3%
               Skewed Normal        +27.1%      +34.9%   -44.8%   -29.6%       4.3:1   25.5%        32.0%         0.5%
        Historical Bootstrap        +23.9%      +33.6%   -55.1%   -37.9%       3.7:1   29.3%        31.6%         1.8%
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)        +20.7%      +31.1%   -81.9%   -50.0%       2.9:1   33.3%        30.7%         5.0%

🔍 KEY INSIGHTS:
• Fat Tails Impact: Student-t VaR is 57% worse than Normal GBM
• Empirical Reality: Bootstrap VaR is 2% different from Normal GBM
• Tail Risk Difference: 21.3 percentage points between models
• Most Conservative Model: Fat Tails (Student-t)
• Most Optimistic Model: Skewed Normal
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====================================================================================================
                    SUMMARY TABLE - ALL MONTE CARLO METHODS
====================================================================================================

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +23.0%   3.8:1  $48,661 $65,599 $97,884 $128,685 $170,177 $254,136 $337,127
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.2%   2.2:1  $-8,500 $43,304 $83,761 $114,294 $153,285 $237,396 $336,947
Skewed Normal              +27.1%   4.3:1  $57,808 $73,678 $104,014 $132,953 $168,600 $237,076 $299,348
Historical Bootstrap       +23.9%   3.7:1  $47,000 $64,957 $99,034 $129,690 $169,214 $250,714 $323,965
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +20.7%   2.9:1  $18,960 $52,326 $93,411 $126,311 $168,628 $258,713 $359,886
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.8%   3.4:1  $32,786 $59,973 $95,621 $126,386 $165,981 $247,607 $331,455
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +23.0%   3.7:1  $47,000 $64,957 $97,884 $128,685 $168,628 $250,714 $336,947
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.8%
• Target Price: $126,386
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $59,973 to $247,607
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $59,973 (-42.7%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $247,607 (+136.6%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.9% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.1% chance of losing money


====================================================================================================
                    DETAILED METHOD SUMMARIES
====================================================================================================

==================== STANDARD GBM (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Standard GBM (Normal)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +23.0% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.8:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $48,661
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $65,599
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $97,884
→ Median value in 90 days $128,685
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $170,177
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $254,136
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $337,127
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $65,599 (-37.3%)
→ VaR (1%): $48,661 (-53.5%)


==================== FAT TAILS MODEL (STUDENT-T) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.2% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-8,500
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $43,304
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $83,761
→ Median value in 90 days $114,294
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $153,285
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $237,396
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $336,947
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $43,304 (-58.6%)
→ VaR (1%): $-8,500 (-108.1%)


==================== EMPIRICAL MODEL (HISTORICAL BOOTSTRAP) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Historical Bootstrap
================================================================================
Median outcome: +23.9% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.7:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $47,000
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $64,957
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $99,034
→ Median value in 90 days $129,690
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $169,214
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $250,714
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $323,965
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $64,957 (-37.9%)
→ VaR (1%): $47,000 (-55.1%)


==================== HYBRID MODEL (BOOTSTRAP + EXTREMES) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +20.7% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.9:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $18,960
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $52,326
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $93,411
→ Median value in 90 days $126,311
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $168,628
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $258,713
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $359,886
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $52,326 (-50.0%)
→ VaR (1%): $18,960 (-81.9%)


==================== STANDARD GBM (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Standard GBM (Normal)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +23.0% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.8:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $48,661
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $65,599
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $97,884
→ Median value in 90 days $128,685
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $170,177
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $254,136
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $337,127
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $65,599 (-37.3%)
→ VaR (1%): $48,661 (-53.5%)


==================== FAT TAILS MODEL (STUDENT-T) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.2% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-8,500
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $43,304
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $83,761
→ Median value in 90 days $114,294
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $153,285
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $237,396
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $336,947
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $43,304 (-58.6%)
→ VaR (1%): $-8,500 (-108.1%)


==================== EMPIRICAL MODEL (HISTORICAL BOOTSTRAP) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Historical Bootstrap
================================================================================
Median outcome: +23.9% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.7:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $47,000
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $64,957
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $99,034
→ Median value in 90 days $129,690
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $169,214
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $250,714
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $323,965
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $64,957 (-37.9%)
→ VaR (1%): $47,000 (-55.1%)


==================== HYBRID MODEL (BOOTSTRAP + EXTREMES) ====================
================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +20.7% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.9:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $18,960
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $52,326
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $93,411
→ Median value in 90 days $126,311
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $168,628
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $258,713
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $359,886
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $52,326 (-50.0%)
→ VaR (1%): $18,960 (-81.9%)


========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +23.0%   3.8:1  $48,661 $65,599 $97,884 $128,685 $170,177 $254,136 $337,127
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.2%   2.2:1  $-8,500 $43,304 $83,761 $114,294 $153,285 $237,396 $336,947
Skewed Normal              +27.1%   4.3:1  $57,808 $73,678 $104,014 $132,953 $168,600 $237,076 $299,348
Historical Bootstrap       +23.9%   3.7:1  $47,000 $64,957 $99,034 $129,690 $169,214 $250,714 $323,965
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +20.7%   2.9:1  $18,960 $52,326 $93,411 $126,311 $168,628 $258,713 $359,886
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.8%   3.4:1  $32,786 $59,973 $95,621 $126,386 $165,981 $247,607 $331,455
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +23.0%   3.7:1  $47,000 $64,957 $97,884 $128,685 $168,628 $250,714 $336,947
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.8%
• Target Price: $126,386
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $59,973 to $247,607
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $59,973 (-42.7%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $247,607 (+136.6%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.9% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.1% chance of losing money


🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 9
   % from ATH: -6.55%
   RSI-14: 51.8

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.998) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-31 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    9.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -226.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -6.5 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   +1.5
   30d return     : Now   11.2 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +5.3
   RSI-14         : Now   51.8 | Then   51.3 | Diff   +0.5
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-31 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    9.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -146.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -6.5 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +19.9
   30d return     : Now   11.2 | Then   20.9 | Diff   -9.6
   RSI-14         : Now   51.8 | Then   52.4 | Diff   -0.6
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.996) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-08-16 00:00:00 to 2024-10-15 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-05-31 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now    9.0 | Then  215.0 | Diff -206.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -6.5 | Then   -9.1 | Diff   +2.6
   30d return     : Now   11.2 | Then    0.6 | Diff  +10.7
   RSI-14         : Now   51.8 | Then   66.3 | Diff  -14.5
📈 What happened next:
   5d :   +2.9%
   10d:   -0.7%
   20d:   +1.1%
   30d:  +30.2%
   60d:  +51.2%
   90d:  +40.9%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3

Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 167 to 14 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-11 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8590)
   Extended to: 2023-08-10 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-20 to 2023-11-17 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8433)
   Extended to: 2024-05-15 (+180 days)
3. 2013-05-01 to 2013-09-28 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8238)
   Extended to: 2014-03-27 (+180 days)
4. 2015-06-22 to 2015-11-19 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.8058)
   Extended to: 2016-05-17 (+180 days)
5. 2019-09-26 to 2020-02-23 (Year: 2019, Correlation: 0.7967)
   Extended to: 2020-08-21 (+180 days)
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Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-14 2023-02-11     0.859010  2022            151              331
1 2023-06-20 2023-11-17     0.843288  2023            151              331
2 2013-05-01 2013-09-28     0.823780  2013            151              331
3 2015-06-22 2015-11-19     0.805833  2015            151              331
4 2019-09-26 2020-02-23     0.796694  2019            151              331

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-11
Correlation: 0.8590

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250601_172712
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-05-31
  Number of rows: 5003

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250601_172712
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
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FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 8.39%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 9
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        9       6.86%       6.99%     -14.13%      29.69%       77.8%
 14 days        9      17.07%      16.86%     -13.61%      39.42%       88.9%
 30 days        9      32.19%      24.78%     -44.15%      56.20%       77.8%
 90 days        9      69.53%      92.78%     -17.08%     324.38%       88.9%
180 days        9     310.55%     325.40%      -0.62%     788.20%       88.9%
365 days        9     277.17%     286.79%     -40.18%     592.43%       88.9%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-08-03   2021-11-01    59.58%       Year1        3       
2021-02-04   2021-05-05    55.45%       Year1        1       
2017-07-28   2017-10-26   112.10%       Year1        3       
2017-07-24   2017-10-22   116.27%       Year1        3       
2017-04-16   2017-07-15    69.53%       Year1        2       
================================================================================
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FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 10.99%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3
Total similar periods found: 3
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Min        Max        % Positive  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        3       5.63%       6.68%       3.17%      11.24%      100.0%
 14 days        3       2.78%       4.50%       1.37%       9.35%      100.0%
 30 days        3      26.15%      18.80%      -1.06%      31.31%       66.7%
 90 days        3     137.46%     360.04%     118.77%     823.89%      100.0%
180 days        3     292.34%     339.95%     277.90%     449.62%      100.0%
365 days        3     547.35%     461.70%     289.92%     547.84%      100.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2017-04-03   2017-07-02   118.77%       Year1        2       
2017-03-31   2017-06-29   137.46%       Year1        1       
2013-09-05   2013-12-04   823.89%       Year1        3       
================================================================================
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===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 =====
Total recovery points found: 2

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 32.4%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%)
14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%)
30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%)
60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%)
90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)
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===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 =====
Total recovery points found: 14

Showing 3 out of 14 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size)

Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00
Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October
Price at recovery: $152.89
Previous peak (high): $259.34
Drawdown low: $45.00
Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%)
Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 444.1% | 180d: 660.2%

Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2017-01-01 00:00:00
Year: 2017 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 1 | Month: January
Price at recovery: $997.75
Previous peak (high): $1163.00
Drawdown low: $382.21
Drawdown amount: $780.79 (67.1%)
Recovery amount: $615.54 (78.8%)

Forward Returns:
7d: -8.8% | 14d: -17.6% | 30d: -3.4% | 60d: 26.0% | 90d: 8.6% | 180d: 147.1%

Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2021-08-13 00:00:00
Year: 2021 | Cycle_year: Year1 | Quarter: 3 | Month: August
Price at recovery: $47860.58
Previous peak (high): $64895.22
Drawdown low: $28600.00
Drawdown amount: $36295.22 (55.9%)
Recovery amount: $19260.58 (53.1%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 3.1% | 14d: 2.6% | 30d: -3.8% | 60d: 17.0% | 90d: 35.4% | 180d: 101.6%

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 43.6%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: 13.0% (Win rate: 64.3%)
14 days: 25.3% (Win rate: 71.4%)
30 days: 57.4% (Win rate: 71.4%)
60 days: 91.7% (Win rate: 92.3%)
90 days: 135.9% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 364.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
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🎯 COMPLETE ANALYSIS FOR Year1
============================================================
🔄 Calculating days since 20-day highs/lows...

📊 CURRENT STATUS (20-DAY WINDOW):
Days since 20-day high: 9
Days since 20-day low: 19
20-day high: $111970.17
20-day low: $100764.00
Current close: $104638.09
Current cycle year: Year1
Current month: May
Current quarter: Q2
------------------------------------------------------------

🧪 HISTORICAL TESTING - 20-DAY WINDOW:
============================================================

🔴 Testing: Days since 20-day HIGH = 9
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,003 → 1,246 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_high = 9 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 36
Date range: 2013-03-15 00:00:00 to 2025-05-31 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(36)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(10), 2: np.int64(10), 3: np.int64(10), 4: np.int64(6)}
Month breakdown: {'March': np.int64(5), 'September': np.int64(5), 'January': np.int64(4), 'June': np.int64(4), 'May': np.int64(3), 'April': np.int64(3), 'July': np.int64(3), 'August': np.int64(2), 'October': np.int64(2), 'November': np.int64(2), 'December': np.int64(2), 'February': np.int64(1)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 0.67%
Median return: 0.76%
Win rate: 60.0%
Best return: 10.50%
Worst return: -8.81%
Standard deviation: 4.06%
68% of returns fall between: -3.39% to 4.73%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 3.72%
Median return: 3.63%
Win rate: 60.0%
Best return: 42.05%
Worst return: -15.00%
Standard deviation: 12.38%
68% of returns fall between: -8.66% to 16.10%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 6.84%
Median return: 2.60%
Win rate: 62.9%
Best return: 73.27%
Worst return: -23.99%
Standard deviation: 19.33%
68% of returns fall between: -12.49% to 26.17%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 18.91%
Median return: 5.67%
Win rate: 57.1%
Best return: 290.41%
Worst return: -19.10%
Standard deviation: 59.63%
68% of returns fall between: -40.72% to 78.54%


🟢 Testing: Days since 20-day LOW = 19
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,003 → 1,246 (24.9%)
==================================================
=== Historical Analysis: days_since_20d_low = 19 (Filtered: Year: Year1) ===
Total occurrences: 336
Date range: 2013-01-06 00:00:00 to 2025-05-31 00:00:00
Cycle Year breakdown: {'Year1': np.int64(336)}
Quarter breakdown: {1: np.int64(108), 2: np.int64(81), 3: np.int64(63), 4: np.int64(84)}
Month breakdown: {'February': np.int64(52), 'May': np.int64(43), 'August': np.int64(41), 'October': np.int64(38), 'January': np.int64(31), 'April': np.int64(27), 'November': np.int64(26), 'March': np.int64(25), 'December': np.int64(20), 'September': np.int64(14), 'June': np.int64(11), 'July': np.int64(8)}

--- 1-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 1.64%
Median return: 1.16%
Win rate: 63.6%
Best return: 20.20%
Worst return: -19.88%
Standard deviation: 4.85%
68% of returns fall between: -3.21% to 6.49%

--- 5-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 6.52%
Median return: 4.62%
Win rate: 69.2%
Best return: 70.02%
Worst return: -40.85%
Standard deviation: 14.71%
68% of returns fall between: -8.19% to 21.23%

--- 10-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 12.25%
Median return: 7.33%
Win rate: 69.9%
Best return: 125.32%
Worst return: -51.71%
Standard deviation: 25.49%
68% of returns fall between: -13.24% to 37.74%

--- 20-Day Forward Returns ---
Average return: 28.69%
Median return: 12.45%
Win rate: 75.4%
Best return: 295.00%
Worst return: -45.64%
Standard deviation: 54.32%
68% of returns fall between: -25.63% to 83.01%


📊 SUMMARY COMPARISON TABLE (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
================================================================================
Signal Type              Occurrences  1D Avg  5D Avg  10D Avg  20D Avg  1D Win%  5D Win%  10D Win%  20D Win%  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Days Since 20D High = 9  36           0.7%    3.7%    6.8%     18.9%    60%      60%      63%       57%       
Days Since 20D Low = 19  336          1.6%    6.5%    12.2%    28.7%    64%      69%      70%       75%       
================================================================================

⚡ QUICK INSIGHTS (20-DAY WINDOW - Year: Year1):
📈 20D High Signal (9d): 20-day avg 18.9% | Best: 290% | Worst: -19%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -40.7% to +78.5% (±1 std dev)
📉 20D Low Signal (19d): 20-day avg 28.7% | Best: 295% | Worst: -46%
   └─ 68% of returns fall between: -25.6% to +83.0% (±1 std dev)
================================================================================

📈 Creating original visualizations...
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,003 → 1,246 (24.9%)
==================================================
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📈 CREATING INDIVIDUAL YEAR CHARTS FOR Year1:
============================================================

🔴 High Signal Charts (20D High = 9 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
No description has been provided for this image 
🟢 Low Signal Charts (20D Low = 19 days):
📅 Creating individual charts for Year1: [np.int32(2013), np.int32(2017), np.int32(2021), np.int32(2025)]
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Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
================================================================
      Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year   Week  Month 3 Month 6 Month    Year
01/21/2013         16.52      16.98      Year1  13.01  81.60  619.19  414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013         30.00      30.07      Year1   4.37 133.00  291.67  242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013         75.11      80.00      Year1  39.40  98.38   33.68   64.28  677.22
11/06/2013        263.24     265.00      Year1  49.48 207.71  205.04   64.49   32.95
02/23/2017      1,188.11   1,193.92      Year1   5.80 -19.53  103.71  243.82  755.65
04/30/2017      1,350.21   1,356.00      Year1  15.09  63.20   98.53  327.48  584.50
06/06/2017      2,880.74   2,933.00      Year1  -6.17  -9.73   48.47  290.52  165.85
08/05/2017      3,263.62   3,339.66      Year1  18.12  31.05  118.98  175.74  115.48
10/12/2017      5,445.00   5,445.00      Year1   4.66  16.71  173.46   25.54   13.59
11/16/2017      7,846.96   7,976.79      Year1   1.81 144.53   20.95    8.00  -29.80
12/16/2017     19,187.78  19,377.00      Year1 -23.81 -29.08  -56.96  -65.36  -83.36
01/01/2021     29,402.64  29,700.00      Year1  38.31  12.72   99.74   19.16   62.49
02/08/2021     46,416.45  46,712.12      Year1   3.29  20.33   25.61   -3.89   -5.01
03/13/2021     61,165.19  61,781.83      Year1  -4.95  -2.18  -38.95  -24.15  -38.22
04/13/2021     63,564.48  63,769.00      Year1 -11.11 -21.82  -47.92  -13.92  -35.27
10/20/2021     65,990.31  67,016.50      Year1 -11.40 -11.91  -35.78  -38.15  -71.14
01/20/2025    102,141.00 109,356.00      Year1  -0.05  -5.38  -16.59    2.44    2.44
05/21/2025    109,682.00 110,730.00      Year1  -1.71  -4.60   -4.60   -4.60   -4.60
   Average                                       7.45  39.17   91.01   96.06  489.38
    Median                                       3.83  14.71   41.08   22.35   23.27
% Positive                                       61.1   55.6    66.7    66.7    61.1

Found 155 total ATHs to analyze

Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
==============================================================
  ATH Date        ATH Days   End Date  End Price Decline Cycle     1W  1W DD 1W Max     2W  2W DD 2W Max     1M  1M DD 1M Max     2M  2M DD 2M Max     3M  3M DD 3M Max     6M  6M DD 6M Max     1Y  1Y DD  1Y Max
04/10/2013     162.00   14 04/24/2013     149.00   -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60  14.28 -24.05 -45.30  14.28 -13.62 -45.30  14.28 -32.61 -45.30  14.28 -41.62 -57.72  14.28  20.89 -57.72  22.10 237.05 -57.72  680.54
11/30/2013   1,119.80   14 12/14/2013     854.99  -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30   1.75 -16.37 -55.30   1.75  -3.74 -55.30  16.38 -23.66 -55.30  16.38 -26.27 -55.30  16.38 -33.44 -60.26  16.38 -58.30 -67.84   16.38
03/10/2017   1,116.97   14 03/24/2017     929.06  -16.82 Year1  15.20  -4.06  16.35  28.16  -4.06  29.38  33.68  -4.06  34.79 143.71  -4.06 144.87 192.07  -4.06 220.75 317.03  -4.06 436.01 819.96  -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017   2,667.06   14 06/26/2017   2,421.22   -9.22 Year1   5.34  -5.38   7.18  -4.04  -6.58   9.01   4.29 -24.42  21.34  79.91 -24.42  85.03  51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42  712.24
09/02/2017   4,599.90   14 09/16/2017   3,678.93  -20.02 Year1   2.72  -5.87  12.06  17.59  -5.87  18.21  56.18  -5.87  58.92  98.26  -5.87 114.41 374.91  -5.87 387.48 124.66  -5.87 434.56  76.68  -5.87  434.56
12/17/2017  18,953.00   14 12/31/2017  13,880.00  -26.77 Year1  16.17  -7.77  24.17  -1.67  -7.78  24.17 -28.16 -33.56  24.17 -21.45 -57.34  24.17 -50.08 -57.34  24.17 -55.30 -58.40  24.17 -73.39 -77.51   24.17
01/08/2021  40,667.07   14 01/22/2021  32,992.06  -18.87 Year1   3.81 -11.64  17.06  16.15 -11.64  17.45  74.26 -11.64  76.87  64.77 -11.64  87.26  56.66 -11.64  96.70  -2.59 -13.31  96.70   6.36 -13.31  109.14
02/21/2021  57,492.91   14 03/07/2021  50,967.30  -11.35 Year1  15.79  -3.24  21.22  12.59  -3.24  21.22  13.83  -3.24  21.22  10.75  -7.78  27.33 -30.28 -41.01  27.33  -1.85 -43.89  27.33 -25.41 -43.89   35.38
03/13/2021  61,165.19   14 03/27/2021  55,839.42   -8.71 Year1   2.19  -2.08   7.64   7.03  -2.08   9.64  -3.16 -15.82  16.22 -29.60 -46.16  16.22 -43.41 -48.78  16.22 -19.58 -48.78  16.22 -16.07 -48.78   23.57
04/14/2021  62,986.09   14 04/28/2021  54,901.97  -12.83 Year1   4.75  -4.59   7.46 -10.05 -11.61   8.56 -34.99 -45.24   8.56 -36.80 -47.91   8.56 -28.10 -47.91   8.56  14.93 -47.91  22.07 -27.59 -47.91   25.68
10/20/2021  65,990.31   14 11/03/2021  62,930.72   -4.64 Year1   3.16  -4.48   9.64  -4.06  -7.20   9.64 -14.60 -18.07   9.64 -24.76 -33.31   9.64 -38.45 -47.64   9.64 -38.79 -47.64   9.64 -67.89 -72.04    9.64
11/10/2021  64,921.43   14 11/24/2021  57,185.06  -11.92 Year1   0.12  -6.78   3.95 -11.61 -26.61   3.95 -11.09 -26.61   3.95 -36.53 -40.54   3.95 -33.08 -42.38   3.95 -49.14 -55.58   3.95 -70.99 -72.93    3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00   14 02/03/2025 101,457.00   -0.67 Year1  -3.93  -6.63   0.32  -5.60  -7.26   0.32 -10.69 -22.93   0.32 -17.35 -24.50   0.32  -7.04 -26.63   0.32   3.14 -26.63  10.36   3.14 -26.63   10.36
   Average                                        -13.35         1.04 -11.34  11.01   0.31 -14.96  12.89   4.78 -24.00  23.59  13.43 -31.09  42.49  28.97 -36.21  71.65  60.29 -38.04 140.90  73.40 -43.30  315.57
    Median                                        -11.92         3.16  -5.87   9.64  -4.04  -7.26   9.64  -3.74 -22.93  16.38 -21.45 -33.31  16.38 -28.10 -42.38  16.38  -1.85 -47.64  22.10 -16.07 -47.91   25.68
% Positive                                                       76.9    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   30.8    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0   100.0

Breakdown by Pause Period:
  14-day pause: 13 ATHs
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Finished 2025-06-01 18:31:26.298772